Sunday, June 21, 2009

Ronald Weinland: "Earthquakes Are Increasing." Really?

Ronald Weinland claims that earthquakes are increasing. He says that increasing earthquakes are one of the seven thunders of Revelation and that these thunders prove that he is God's End Time prophet. Let's look at this proof.

Are earthquakes increasing? I do not know. I hear about them on the TV. It seems like they might be increasing. There was the one that caused the tsunami and several in China both causing large number of deaths.

That doesn't mean that earthquakes are increasing though. So I checked with someone who does know: The US Geological Survey. They detect and measure earthquakes worldwide. The following information is from the USGS website.

FAQs - Common Myths about Earthquakes

Q: Why are we having so many earthquakes? Has earthquake activity been increasing? Does this mean a big one is going to hit? OR We haven't had any earthquakes in a long time; does this mean that the pressure is building up?

A: Although it may seem that we are having more earthquakes, earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater have remained fairly constant throughout this century and, according to our records, have actually seemed to decrease in recent years.

There are several reasons for the perception that the number of earthquakes, in general, and particularly destructive earthquakes is increasing.

1) A partial explanation may lie in the fact that in the last twenty years, we have definitely had an increase in the number of earthquakes we have been able to locate each year. This is because of the tremendous increase in the number of seismograph stations in the world and the many improvements in global communications.

In 1931, there were about 350 stations operating in the world; today, there are more that 4,000 stations and the data now comes in rapidly from these stations by telex, computer and satellite. This increase in the number of stations and the more timely receipt of data has allowed us and other seismological centers to locate many small earthquakes which were undetected in earlier years, and we are able to locate earthquakes more rapidly.

The NEIC now locates about 12,000 to 14,000 earthquakes each year or approximately 50 per day. Also, because of the improvements in communications and the increased interest in natural disasters, the public now learns about more earthquakes. According to long-term records (since about 1900), we expect about 18 major earthquakes (7.0 - 7.9) and one great earthquake (8.0 or above) in any given year.

However, let's take a look at what has happened in the past 32 years, from 1969 through 2001, so far. Our records show that 1992, and 1995-1997 were the only years that we have reached or exceeded the long-term average number of major earthquakes since 1971. In 1970 and in 1971 we had 20 and 19 major earthquakes, respectively, but in other years the total was in many cases well below the 18 per year which we may expect based on the long-term average.

2) The population at risk is increasing. While the number of large earthquakes is fairly constant, population density in earthquake-prone areas is constantly increasing. In some countries, the new construction that comes with population growth has better earthquake resistance; but in many it does not. So we are now seeing increasing casualties from the same sized earthquakes.

3) Better global communication. Just a few decades ago, if several hundred people were killed by an earthquake in Indonesia or eastern China, for example, the media in the rest of the world would not know about it until several days, to weeks, later, long after such an event would be deemed “newsworthy”. So by the time this information was available, it would probably be relegated to the back pages of the newspaper, if at all. And the public Internet didn't even exist. We are now getting this information almost immediately.

4) Earthquake clustering and human psychology. While the average number of large earthquakes per year is fairly constant, earthquakes occur in clusters. This is predicted by various statistical models, and does not imply that earthquakes that are distant in location, but close in time, are causally related. But when such clusters occur, especially when they are widely reported in the media, they are noticed.

However, during the equally anomalous periods during which no destructive earthquakes occur, no one deems this as remarkable. A temporal increase in earthquake activity does not mean that a large earthquake is about to happen. Similarly, quiescence, or the lack of seismicity, does not mean a large earthquake is going to happen.

A temporary increase or decrease in the seismicity rate is usually just part of the natural variation in the seismicity. There is no way for us to know whether or not this time it will lead to a larger earthquake. Swarms of small events, especially in geothermal areas, are common, and moderate-large magnitude earthquakes will typically have an aftershock sequence that follows. All that is normal and expected earthquake activity.

The USGS has a wealth of information. I wanted to use some of their tables, but they can't be pasted in. It is a great resource and we paid for it.

Note: At the USGS website, you can see data that shows there has not been an increase in earthquake activity right up through today - just go to the FAQ.

Don't forget to pull Ron's finger for a personalized prophecy and join Dill Weed, Jr. in the followers section he'd appreciate the company.

Tick Tock

Dill Weed

12 comments:

Mike (Don't Drink the Flavor Aid) said...

On the second post on my blog 14 months ago, I used USGS data to plot earthquake activity to debunk the second thunder. If you don't have Excel, I don't know if your GoogleDocs would let you do this.

Dill Weed said...

Thanks,

I think the USGS does a masterful job. I'm glad my taxes are going for something useful.

Dill Weed

Purple Hymnal said...

He said the same thing during Timeline One....J over at Shadows debunked it pretty well (I think J's a storm-chaser, so he knows what he's talking about). Unfortunately, since the old site was deleted, there's no proof that Rotten Ron was singing this same tune last year, before the Seventh Seal opened on March 18, 2008.

Kirrily XPKG said...

Come on guys - it's spiritual earthquakes don't you know!! (he he he!!) :-)

The spiritual thunders ended, but are still sounding and increasing in intensity. The trumpets too, are spiritual, and trumpet the thunderings over 45-90 days (woops, that went out the window) .... Um, spiritual 45-90 days (each day as a year).... Um..

Oh, maybe its over a 45-90 year period, 90 being half of 180 (which could be degrees - mmm, maybe giving away the actual location of the earthquake as well as timeframe. 180 degrees from Israel maybe?) which means the earthquakes first are spritual, then strike 90 years or 1/2 of 180 or 1/4 being 45..... Um....

Well you know - it's AAAAALLLLLL spritual. You just don't have the eyes to see the spritual green money burning (the money is made from paper which comes from trees - yes, all burning).

Sounds like I'm insane here in the post doesn't it - maybe I should write a book or two.

:-)

Dill Weed said...

Ron's pants are on fire and he can't out run the flames!

Dill Weed

Anonymous said...

Kirrily XPKG - An FYI - If Ron said the burning of trees prophecy is related to the economy (money burning) he has, again, demonstrated what a huge buffoon he is - According to the US Bureau of Engraving & Printing money is printed on notes composed of 25 % linen & 75 % cotton - just my 2 cents

Kirrily XPKG said...

Anon said: "According to the US Bureau of Engraving & Printing money is printed on notes composed of 25 % linen & 75 % cotton - just my 2 cents"

What a classic - I wonder how Ron would spiritualise that away!!

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